Iraq's Fiscal Exposure

Five Months of Crisis: The Cumulative Gap

Combined oil revenue from March to July measured against five months of state spending. Even the full crisis-period revenue could not cover a single month's obligations twice over.
March–July 2026 · Revenue vs Spending (US$, same scale)
Total oil revenue Mar–Jul, 5 months
~$7.9bn  /  10.5T IQD
~$7.9bn total
Salaries, pensions & welfare ×5
$28bn  /  37T IQD
28%
gap: $20bn
Total operational expenditure ×5
$36bn  /  47.5T IQD
22%
gap: $28bn
Total spending incl. investment ×5
$42bn  /  55.5T IQD
19%
gap: $34bn
28%
covered
Salaries
22%
covered
Operations
19%
covered
Total
$34bn
Over five months of crisis, Iraq's oil revenue fell $34 billion short of total state spending and $20 billion short of salaries alone. The monthly composition: Mar $2.0bn · Apr $1.1bn · May $1.0bn · Jun $1.3bn · Jul $2.6bn.
Revenue: SOMO / Ministry of Oil (Mar–Apr official, May–Jul estimated). Spending: Ministry of Finance Jan–Sep 2025 averages, extrapolated. Official rate 1,320 IQD/$.  ·  The National Context